The dollar worked downwards in the first trading session this Tuesday (18), with the market awaiting the official presentation of the new fiscal rule to the National Congress, while absorbing the latest economic data from China.
Around 9:15 am (Brasília time), the US dollar fell 0.22%, being put on sale at R$ 4.927.
The head of government in the Chamber of Deputies, José Guimarães (PT-CE), said that the text of the new tax law should be delivered to Congress on Tuesday. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will meet at the Parliamentary Summit with the presence of Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, respectively.
The government expects to approve the text by mid-June, before the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) scheduled for the 20th and 21st of the same month. The final approval of the proposal, from the government’s point of view, would cause the BC to start lowering the Selic rate.
Overseas, China’s economic growth has led to a recovery in markets. First-quarter gross domestic product increased 4.5% year-over-year, beating market analyst expectations of 4%. The resumption is a reversal of the end of the Covid-zero policy, which also boosted retail sales data: in March alone, the index increased by 10.6% compared to the same month last year.
However, Chinese industrial production missed expectations of a 4.1% rise, rising 3.9%.
The data reinforce expectations that China will hit its 2023 forecast growth target of 5%. British consulting firm Capital Economics raised its forecast for China’s GDP from 5.5% to 6%.
The news is a relief given the global context, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the entire world will grow less due to the increase in interest rates and turbulence in the banking system in March.
A day earlier, the quoted dollar ended the day quoted at R$4.938, up 0.44%. The central bank will hold an auction of up to 16,000 conventional FX swap contracts on this trading session with the aim of extending it to maturity on June 1, 2023.
